Experts say an earthquake surely will devastate the Northwest
#1
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index..._sure.html

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A Japanese flag flies above wreckage in front of the city hospital in Onagawa, a community devastated by the March 11 tsunami and 9-magnitude earthquake. Experts estimate that at least 5,000 Oregonians will die in a similar quake and tsunami here. The only question, they say, is when.

Excerpt: "...Within the next 50 years, (experts) say, Washington and northern Oregon face a 10 to 15 percent probability of an offshore quake powerful enough to kill thousands and launch a tsunami that would level coastal cities. Off southern Oregon, the probability of an 8-or-higher magnitude earthquake is greater -- 37 percent, according to Oregon State University's Chris Goldfinger, one of the world's top experts on subduction-zone quakes.

Goldfinger and other authorities who spoke at a Portland conference this week say the Northwest is dangerously unprepared for a massive quake they consider inevitable at some point. At least 300,000 Oregon children attend school in buildings vulnerable to collapse when the Big One comes.

"I think every parent should know this," said Kit Miyamoto, an earthquake engineer from Japan whose company is helping repair quake-damaged structures in Haiti. "Those schools should be banned."

Earthquake experts are speaking with new urgency after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami that killed more than 24,000 March 11, shattering long-held assumptions on safety and survival. A much smaller New Zealand quake in February showed what can happen in a city similar to Portland, killing 181 and destroying thousands of houses.

Researchers say giant tectonic plates off Oregon's coast are locked in a slow-motion collision, accumulating energy that will ultimately be released when sections of Earth's crust slip. An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could launch a tsunami resembling Japan's towering tidal wave, flattening Seaside and other low-lying cities.

Oregon is not nearly as prepared as Japan for a major earthquake, let alone a tsunami, said experts at the meeting held Friday in Portland State University's seismically reinforced Lincoln Hall. Oregon stores much of its liquid fuel, for example, in tanks on soil prone to liquefaction along the Willamette River north of Portland.

Japan built sea walls and other elaborate fortifications to withstand a tsunami from an 8.2-magnitude quake, the maximum officials expected along the country's northeast coast. But one scientist, Yasutaka Ikeda of Tokyo University, predicted 10 years ago that a 9-magnitude earthquake would shake the region.

"Nobody listened to him," Goldfinger told an audience at the meeting held by the American Institute of Architects Portland. "They just prepared for the wrong thing..."
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#2
Only houses made of straw and mud will survive
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#3
I don't know if that's true, but the parts to fix them with will always be available. We might not have much else by then.
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#4
We live on the west coast, eventually we will get hit with another major quake. We are lucky in that most of our building atleast attempt to meet safety earthquake standards- there are other areas prone to quakes that can't even make that claim (New Madrid in the midwest for example). There are no areas in the US exempt from natural disasters of some type or another (tornados anyone?).

Should we start thinking about upgrading public spaces like schools, yes, because those large public areas tend to also be the emergency sheters we use in case of emergencies. Knowing what we know now about the ability of the pacific to form tsunamis of epic proportions should we start atleast looking at the possibility- absolutely. We were watching a show on tsunamis on discovery, they were talking about the evacuation plans of Seaside I believe, after seeing Japan though I have to wonder if there would even be enough time.
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#5
do you have re-bar in the straw house
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#6
I was planning on pinning all the bales together with some Oregon State approved fiberglass rebar I bought awhile back (fiberglass as opposed to steel that would draw condensation). However, a guy giving me advice says general practice has moved beyond that, and now he has been putting bamboo on each side of the wall, with ties holding it together (the whole wall is then coated with earth plaster). He thinks my fiberglass rebar will be even better than bamboo. I haven't seen this done yet though, so it's a little bit conceptual to me still.
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#7
Reinforcement sounds good. Maybe it will be the only thing standing after the big move
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#8
(06-25-2011, 04:13 PM)PonderThis Wrote: I was planning on pinning all the bales together with some Oregon State approved fiberglass rebar I bought awhile back (fiberglass as opposed to steel that would draw condensation). However, a guy giving me advice says general practice has moved beyond that, and now he has been putting bamboo on each side of the wall, with ties holding it together (the whole wall is then coated with earth plaster). He thinks my fiberglass rebar will be even better than bamboo. I haven't seen this done yet though, so it's a little bit conceptual to me still.

Hollow out the bales, line 'em with wood, and fill with concrete. Razz

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#9
(06-25-2011, 09:28 AM)reelo Wrote: We live on the west coast, eventually we will get hit with another major quake. We are lucky in that most of our building atleast attempt to meet safety earthquake standards- there are other areas prone to quakes that can't even make that claim (New Madrid in the midwest for example). There are no areas in the US exempt from natural disasters of some type or another (tornados anyone?).

Should we start thinking about upgrading public spaces like schools, yes, because those large public areas tend to also be the emergency sheters we use in case of emergencies. Knowing what we know now about the ability of the pacific to form tsunamis of epic proportions should we start atleast looking at the possibility- absolutely. We were watching a show on tsunamis on discovery, they were talking about the evacuation plans of Seaside I believe, after seeing Japan though I have to wonder if there would even be enough time.

Should we start thinking about upgrading public spaces like schools


We are already and have been building earthquake resistant structures for quite a long time. As far as tsunamis of epic proportions, you say should we start atleast looking at the possibility- absolutely
IMO ,There is nothing we can do to a school that is in the path of a tsunamis of epic proportion.

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#10
Don't crawl under desk and tables during a big shake. Lay next to a large object, desk seem to collapse but they leaves a triangle of life next to them .

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