PLEASE Don't Let This Happen for Thanksgiving!
#1
US National Weather Service Medford Oregon

The first in a series of storms will impact the region Friday night through the weekend. The first system will bring gusty winds along the coast and heavy precipitation to northern California. The next system will be colder and send a strong cold front to the region on Saturday. Another strong cold front will move through the area Sunday and Sunday night. Snow levels will drop between 3500 and 4500 feet Saturday night causing hazardous driving conditions over the passes due to accumulating snow. Anyone planning to travel over the mountain passes this weekend needs to be prepared for wintery conditions
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#2
www.ryanweather.com


Extremely wet and stormy weather is on the way after Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure will result in fog forming in the morning hours on Thursday and Friday. Saturday morning the weather changes dramatically as a strong front enters the region with a 170 mph jet stream ushering in significant precipitation. This will continue well into next week as a progressive pattern will result in storms arriving in succession. Snow levels will be around 6,000 feet but any snow that does fall will result in rapid accumulations. The Rogue Valley could also see strong south winds as the front on Saturday approaches the coastline. Batten down the hatches and get your lawn furniture and loose items that could be blown away securely fastened. It is going to be a bumpy stormy ride.
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#3
I know I'm a weather nut..I confess.
I just want to remind you folks to, perhaps, do your errands tomorrow, Friday.
Get some good stuff for the crockpot, some movies, good booze, munchies.
When a cold front enters the region on a 170 mph jet stream, dramatic things tend to happen.
Batten down and STAY HOME!
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#4
(11-15-2012, 09:43 PM)Clone Wrote: I know I'm a weather nut..I confess.
I just want to remind you folks to, perhaps, do your errands tomorrow, Friday.
Get some good stuff for the crockpot, some movies, good booze, munchies.
When a cold front enters the region on a 170 mph jet stream, dramatic things tend to happen.
Batten down and STAY HOME!

Time to drop her in 4X4 and go out and have some fun! Razz
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#5
Hey Forum friends. I know it has been awhile since I have been on here providing weather updates. I have spent most of my time focusing on work and posting forecasts on my Facebook and Google + pages. Thanks Clone for linking to my Facebook posts, I appreciate it greatly. On another more important note the weather will be turning for the worse starting today and most likely continuing into most of next week. The real impact of these storms will be strong winds and rain in the valley. The wind impact will not occur until Monday as the strongest of the three fronts approaches the coastline. Gusts over 35-40 mph could also reach advisory levels (over 50 mph) in the Rogue Valley in the windiest spots (Ashland/S. Talent areas). The bottom line is to be prepared for the possibility of power outages as the heavy rain and wind will lead to trees and branches snapping or toppling. As the soil becomes saturated and runoff occurs urban and small stream flooding becomes a very real possibility. Snow levels should remain above 6,000 feet but could drop lower at times. We are all Oregonians and know the drill, we don't want to become complacent and always prepare for the worst possible situation. Hope all of you have a great weekend.

Ryan
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#6
I never really got in the holiday mood. Maybe because I'm the one they nigger joked all day. You wouldn't believe my wife's family. Especially now that story is changed and they are a pack of sick puppies. I only endured that shit for my wife. And, Jack didn't die by my hand. And, I was happy he escaped the hangman. I'm a forgiving soul. None of his four daughters forgave him. I'm gonna' tackle some Christmas carols (I am his brother, and I think he'd understand). But, no Canting. They don't even do Christmas. But, they're welcome, for the holidays. It'll be good, when we have one great big God.
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#7
I have just experienced a power outage. Total, and she thinks, permanent. I have about got it taken care of. And, they can keep their power. I'm "aching with the freedom"
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#8
(11-17-2012, 05:04 PM)illcommandante Wrote: I have just experienced a power outage. Total, and she thinks, permanent. I have about got it taken care of. And, they can keep their power. I'm "aching with the freedom"

I hope you are warm and dry. It's nasty out there.
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#9
(11-17-2012, 06:46 PM)Clone Wrote:
(11-17-2012, 05:04 PM)illcommandante Wrote: I have just experienced a power outage. Total, and she thinks, permanent. I have about got it taken care of. And, they can keep their power. I'm "aching with the freedom"

I hope you are warm and dry. It's nasty out there.

He's probably in a motel six and yanking your chain for sympathy and attention.
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#10
Just because that's what you would do doesn't mean that's what Illc will do. And, as a matter of fact, I happen to know you're wrong, too.
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#11
Wal Mart, this morning. Wool socks. Rubber boots. Long Johns. I wish I'd had my insulated Georgias on, whenI had to leave in a hurry. I hope she shows at the hearing. With the boots. I've never been without a good pair of cop stompers. And, now, I need them more than ever.
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#12
Does walmart actually carry something made of real wool?
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#13
(11-17-2012, 09:57 PM)Tiamat Wrote: Does walmart actually carry something made of real wool?

No. They can't find it in China. But, many stores have a sheep out back you can shear if you want.
PS: No TVg, sheer means cutting some, or all, of the accumulated wool from the animal. (Sheer, shear...choose one)
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#14
I wish I could be at the coast right now!!!

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RogueWeather.Com · 546 like this
about an hour ago · ..




The next in a series of winter storms is getting ready to hit the coast this morning, and this one is a storm to watch!

This is a very strong system packing a lot of rain, and wind. As a snow maker it will do a good job too....it's just that the snow levels will be high enough that it will not pose any real problems at this point. Snow levels are going to run 5500 - 6500 feet on this one. They will be staying there until at least Tuesday morning before coming down only slightly. At least that is the thought any way. As we saw yesterday afternoon, things do not always work according to the plan. I will once again say that if you have travel plans in the mountains above 4000 feet, you should be be prepared to encounter winter driving conditions at any time.

The storm will unleash a full assault on Southern Oregon and Northern California that will last through Wednesday. Look for strong winds to 70 miles an hour or more in places, and heavy rain. Flood watches are out all over the area. This is mostly for small stream flooding that is expected to develop by Tuesday, but some flood prone rivers like the Coquille are covered too.

Over at the coast, along with a flooding potential......there are other things to keep you focused on this storm. There are high wind warnings out right now. Expect gusts to 70 miles an hour or more. There is also the chance for severe thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night as the center of the storm drives in. It will be bringing some cold unstable air with it. Damaging winds could occur with thunderstorms that do form, and of course.....there will be lightning as well.

The Rogue Valley around Medford is well known for it's "doughnut hole effect". This is where downsloping wind off the Siskiyous forces rain around the Medford area and keeps us relatively dry. That scenario is shaping up here. Medford will be among the very last places to see the heavier rain move in. It might be until Monday night before the big soaking rain gets going here. Lighter rain is likely. For the rest of Southwestern Oregon, the heavier rain gets going tonight.
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#15
I am getting a better insight into homelessness. What true church of God, could close their doors to homeless in this? When I'm sheriff, the churches are off the hook. The homeless can have the jail. And, the scrap dealer can have the doors. We live in a criminal society.
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#16
Just out of curiosity, Clone, do you know what information the rogueweather.com webmaster develops his forecasts from? I am just wondering because the website appears to be just copying and pasting data from the National Weather Service for daily forecasts? I am going to go out on a limb and call the severe thunderstorm prediction that he has in there bogus. I find that to be a bit questionable given that this is a cold front and not a typical summer thunderstorm event. I wouldn't go as far as saying severe weather is possible as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK hasn't even issued a watch for this. A few lightning strikes and some strong squall lines are possible along the coastline, but I don't see severe weather impacting the Rogue Valley. Just my 2 cents.
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#17
(11-18-2012, 03:30 PM)Ryan541 Wrote: Just out of curiosity, Clone, do you know what information the rogueweather.com webmaster develops his forecasts from? I am just wondering because the website appears to be just copying and pasting data from the National Weather Service for daily forecasts? I am going to go out on a limb and call the severe thunderstorm prediction that he has in there bogus. I find that to be a bit questionable given that this is a cold front and not a typical summer thunderstorm event. I wouldn't go as far as saying severe weather is possible as the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK hasn't even issued a watch for this. A few lightning strikes and some strong squall lines are possible along the coastline, but I don't see severe weather impacting the Rogue Valley. Just my 2 cents.

Interesting, Ryan...thanks for taking the time!
This was the one that showed up on my Facebook newsfeed this morning.
I love weather, I love 'weather events' and you always seem to have a grip on what's going on...I'm on my way back to Facebook to make sure I see your's!
I never knew Medford was in a donut hole..weird.
I'm in Grants Pass.
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#18
For whatever reasons, I have watched in wonder as over the years the forecasts for gusty winds, lots of rain and/or small to moderate amounts of snow, have evolved into weather "alerts" and/or "warnings" of "extreme" weather.

I think the weather forecasts, like so much of the news, have become sensationalized.
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#19
Here in the donut hole, the wind here, just near downtown is just beginning to pick up tiny bit.
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#20
Thanks Clone for adding me as a friend on my weather Facebook page. I appreciate being able to share my forecasts with everyone here on the forum. The "donut hole" as we all affectionately refer to it is a result of down-sloping southerly wind fields in the Rogue Valley. We have a rather large mountain chain called the Siskiyou range to the south causing most of the moisture in southerly flow to literally be dried out of the clouds before it reaches the valley floor. In weather terms this is called compressional heating due to water molecules being forced downward. This results in the heating of the airmass, thus drying up any water molecules that had coalesced into water droplets (rain). The lion share of the rain falls on the windward facing slopes and we in the Rogue Valley see little in terms of rainfall. We will see rain late Monday into Tuesday as the wind field begins to shift to the east and the slow becomes more westward in trajectory. My advice is to prepare for the winds even if they never reach advisory criteria. It doesn't take much to topple a tree with wet soils.
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