Winter Precip
#1
Just saw a news story on Channel 12 that our area is expected to have a heavier than normal amount of precipitation this rain year! Yippie.....let's hope it is ALL snow in the upper elevations.
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#2
(09-19-2011, 07:14 PM)Snowlover Wrote: Just saw a news story on Channel 12 that our area is expected to have a heavier than normal amount of precipitation this rain year! Yippie.....let's hope it is ALL snow in the upper elevations.

Again? Last year was wet, and not very cold.
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#3
(09-19-2011, 07:15 PM)Tiamat Wrote:
(09-19-2011, 07:14 PM)Snowlover Wrote: Just saw a news story on Channel 12 that our area is expected to have a heavier than normal amount of precipitation this rain year! Yippie.....let's hope it is ALL snow in the upper elevations.

Again? Last year was wet, and not very cold.

Starting Feb 15ish, it was an awesome snow year and I had a friend who was still going snowmobiling in AUGUST!! The latest I have ever went was Father's Day weekend so mid June.
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#4



FALL 2011 - OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER




As I just said, in May October looked much different than what is shaping up right now. Temperatures at averages and precipitation below normal. What we are seeing now for October is temperatures still approaching normal values, but from a precipitation point of view October is projecting to be above normal. If you look at what that will mean, it is highly likely now that what we think of as "winter" storms will begin to arrive in October. So look for systems that will bring rain and wind to the valleys and high elevation snows. If you look back at similar years, this seems to have onsets about the middle of the month. For outdoorsmen, especially elk hunters in the Cascades, this will be very welcome news as this kind of setup should result in favorable hunting conditions. For deer hunting after elk season this will certainly be the case. Come halloween, this could mean tough trick or treating if one of the storms that could develop does.

November continues the wetter than normal trend with temperatures at average. This is going to be great news for winter sports enthusiasts as we are looking at conditions that will favor an early opening again for Mt. Ashland and the other ski areas. I expect that Mt. Bachelor could be open by early November. Normal rainfall for November runs at about 3 inches in Medford. So you can see that if we are looking at above average, we could be 4 inches of rain or more for the month. Be expecting that travel around the Thanksgiving holiday may prove to have difficulties with possibilities high for snow packed roads in the higher passes that might include Siskiyou Summit.

December is the bridge month that takes us from fall into winter. Winter arrives officially on the 21st, which also gives us the shortest day of the year in terms of daylight. December will continue the forecast of above average precipitation with normal temperatures. The data right now is showing cooling beginning to set in by the end of the month. So look for temperatures to begin to drop to below normal averages. December averages about three inches of rain just like November. So again, this could mean more than four inches of rain for December. What I am not seeing here is a markedly higher chance for a white Christmas. Could happen, I won't rule that out right now....but at this point it is not shaping up that way. Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta ski areas will certainly be up and running prior to the traditional openers that happen around the 10th. I would not be surprised if they got running in late November.

So in total......look for a wet fall with temperatures at normal averages.




WINTER 2011 - 2012 - LATE DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH




The extended for the winter is giving us a look at something most people dread hearing. MUCH colder than average with above average precipitation. What La Nina's can give us in winter is floods. Our worst floods in Southern Oregon have occurred in La Nina conditions during the winter where we receive a heavy low elevation snowpack that is followed by a system arriving from the tropical waters near Hawaii that brings warm air and heavy rains with rapid snowmelts called a Pineapple Express. While that may develop, there is nothing here at this time in the data that is supporting a Pineapple Express flooding event. This will need to be watched though because on a historical perspective, La Ninas typically do help create a Pineapple Express at least once during a winter. If it will happen, look to late December after Christmas, and through January as the most likely times. Especially this year.

There is also something else that we have now learned about La Ninas. If they do spawn a Pineapple Express here in Oregon.......then the first major cold front to hit the state after it could produce tornadoes in the Willamette Valley. This was the case last December as a combination of all the right conditions came together and produced the most powerful tornado that has been recorded in Oregon at Aumsville up near Salem. This tornado was a very strong EF 2 with winds in the 110 - 125 mile an hour range. At times on it's track it approached EF 3 with winds up to 135 miles an hour. It was just a miracle that nobody was killed or seriously injured in a town that had no warning, and had not given any real thought to the possibility of a tornado. So if a Pineapple Express does develop, then I will be watching for that first strong cold front to approach with good jet stream dynamics, because if it does I will be storm chasing looking for tornadoes for the first time in Oregon west of the Cascades.

Late December looks to see the first hint of change from temperatures at average. Through the fall they are expected to hold near averages. I am expecting the change to below average to hit following Christmas leading into New Years. This period of December has been marked with frequent storms even in average, or below average years. I expect that we will see clouds with rain, and possibly very low elevation snows as we wrap up 2011.

January is the first month that sees us solidly forecast to be below average for temperatures. Precipitation is forecast to continue above normal as well. January averages about 2 and a half inches of rain in Medford. So with the forecast I see developing, we are looking for at least three inches of precipitation to occur. Now, combine that with temperatures below average, and I am projecting that snow could be showing up in forecasts for the valleys of southwestern Oregon with great regularity. January is also the month that gives us the last best chance for a Pineapple Express. If it does not develop in January, then history says that typically they will not. Last January the one thing that I did miss in last years extended for the winter was the false spring that set in that gave us a really dry January with lots of sunny days and above average temperatures. That is not typical of La Nina at all. Those conditions are far more typical of El Nino. I do not anticipate such conditions happening again this coming January. The data right now actually is projecting this January to be even stronger below normal for temperatures than last January appeared at this time.

February is going to be a big month!! It is forecast right now to be MUCH below averages for temperatures, and well above average precipitation. What the data is just screaming out to me is a widespread low elevation major snow event for western Oregon, and especially the valleys of southwestern Oregon. We have had some very big snowfall events in Medford in past Februarys. The data on this one right now looks very good for this to happen again. Probabilities place it in at least the 70 percent range. For a long range forecast, once you hit 70 percent possibilities, you know this is something that looks almost certain to occur. There are those of you out there who hope for big snows on the valley floors. There are also those who really dread them. So in this case, right now 50 percent of you love me, and 50 percent of you are already praying I am wrong. A typical February gives Medford just over 2 inches of rain, so look for something above three inches of precipitation. And yes, I am saying precipitation because I do expect that water that comes out of the sky in February will be in the form of snow.

March is the bridge month from winter to spring. In this outlook it is also the bridge to the precipitation beginning to decrease. Temperatures will stay below normal. This will especially be the case early in the month as we finish that period through February that sees us much below normal. But right now, precipitation for the month of March is projecting to normal. For Medford in March that means just under 2 inches of precipitation. Early in March I do see us in the high likelihood category for low elevation snows. Again, this is owing to temperatures below normal.

In total for the winter of 2011 - 2012.......look for us to be below to much below normal for temperatures and precipitation is going to be above average. It looks snowy with the high possibility of a major low elevation snow event for February.

So there it is........the fall is wet with temperatures in the normal ranges, and the winter will be cold with high probabilities of low elevation snows.

http://www.rogueweather.com/index.php?op...&Itemid=17
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#5
Where I live... we woke up to rain this morning. It was light and didn't last long... but it smelled amazing! Smiling
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#6
It always amazes me how folks can attempt to predict weather patterns almost 6 months in advance. I don't discredit the individual that runs rogueweather.com, but making predictions about actual rainfall amounts and possible snow events is very difficult at best. We have so many microclimates in the Rogue Valley that storms will produce different outcomes depending on localized conditions. I have a hard time making predictions based on models even 5-7 days out let alone 6 months. The climate prediction services of the National Weather Service take a very good long range approach on winter weather patterns, but even these are updated on a weekly basis. Anyway I just figured I would chime in and give my opinion on this. I will try to jump in during the Fall and Winter months with my short term storm predictions. Can't wait for the more interesting weather patterns to evolve.
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#7
(09-20-2011, 04:01 PM)Ryan541 Wrote: It always amazes me how folks can attempt to predict weather patterns almost 6 months in advance. I don't discredit the individual that runs rogueweather.com, but making predictions about actual rainfall amounts and possible snow events is very difficult at best. We have so many microclimates in the Rogue Valley that storms will produce different outcomes depending on localized conditions. I have a hard time making predictions based on models even 5-7 days out let alone 6 months. The climate prediction services of the National Weather Service take a very good long range approach on winter weather patterns, but even these are updated on a weekly basis. Anyway I just figured I would chime in and give my opinion on this. I will try to jump in during the Fall and Winter months with my short term storm predictions. Can't wait for the more interesting weather patterns to evolve.

Agreed and I take it with a grain of salt. But being a SNOW LOVER, I can hope!!!
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#8
(09-19-2011, 07:25 PM)Crone Wrote: So there it is........the fall is wet with temperatures in the normal ranges, and the winter will be cold with high probabilities of low elevation snows.

http://www.rogueweather.com/index.php?op...&Itemid=17

Wow! That will be a much more severe heating season than we're used to if this all comes to pass. Where I'm at, heavy snow can mean a week without power, too.
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#9
(09-20-2011, 04:01 PM)Ryan541 Wrote: It always amazes me how folks can attempt to predict weather patterns almost 6 months in advance. I don't discredit the individual that runs rogueweather.com, but making predictions about actual rainfall amounts and possible snow events is very difficult at best. We have so many microclimates in the Rogue Valley that storms will produce different outcomes depending on localized conditions. I have a hard time making predictions based on models even 5-7 days out let alone 6 months. The climate prediction services of the National Weather Service take a very good long range approach on winter weather patterns, but even these are updated on a weekly basis. Anyway I just figured I would chime in and give my opinion on this. I will try to jump in during the Fall and Winter months with my short term storm predictions. Can't wait for the more interesting weather patterns to evolve.

I am just adding to the mix, Ryan! Big Grin
Please stop by and let us know what's going on; I LOVE weather events.
Well, Southern Oregon weather events. Laughing

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#10
I can do without the wild lightning storms we get. It's been a couple of years since we've had some big ones...
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#11
The wooly worms have decided not to bring children into a world like this. But, Spike and Arlene didn't give it a thought. Their neighbor, who works nights, is already unhappy with them.
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#12
(09-19-2011, 07:20 PM)Snowlover Wrote:
(09-19-2011, 07:15 PM)Tiamat Wrote:
(09-19-2011, 07:14 PM)Snowlover Wrote: Just saw a news story on Channel 12 that our area is expected to have a heavier than normal amount of precipitation this rain year! Yippie.....let's hope it is ALL snow in the upper elevations.

Again? Last year was wet, and not very cold.

Starting Feb 15ish, it was an awesome snow year and I had a friend who was still going snowmobiling in AUGUST!! The latest I have ever went was Father's Day weekend so mid June.

Two years in a row actually, although last year was more extreme. Springs have had meaning lately.

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